Deep Underground with Raul Groom

Monday, July 26, 2004

A lot of people have chided me for my rosy view of the electoral vote situation.  Indeed, today we seem to have favorable evidence for the pessimists, as Bush has small leads in some new polls in Florida and Ohio. 

Yet, if you look a little deeper, you can see what intense trouble Bush is in, and why my analysis is still perfectly valid.  Look at it this way - among the states still in serious contest (a list which, as I predicted, no longer includes Pennsylvania), the three big prizes are Ohio, Florida, and Michigan.  If Kerry wins two out of three of these, he wins handily.  On the other hand, Bush could conceivably win all three of these states and still lose the election.  You really don't need to look much further than that simple fact to see why, headed into a Democratic convention that is likely to be one of the most unified in recent memory, the President* is at best a slight underdog. 

Here's some Raul Groom political trivia for you - can you name the last sitting President to come from behind after August 1st to win reelection?



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