Deep Underground with Raul Groom

Friday, June 25, 2004

Blogspot is eating my posts today, and of course being a brainless tool I have been composing my posts in the browser window again. I did a complete workup of the electoral map this morning, and it's vanished into the ether.

The bottom line is, Bush is in big trouble. He needs Florida for his lungs, and even if he takes Florida he still needs to win a bunch of the other toss-up states in order to win the election. What's more, the meat of the election is going to be in the midwest, particularly Michigan, Missouri and Iowa, not exactly Bush strongholds. If you want a four-word summary of why Bush should be pissing his pants right now, here it is:

Virginia is in play.

That's right. Virginia. That's based on a Rasmussen poll from May 31st, and the President* has actually had a pretty OK month, numbers-wise, so maybe he's back out in front in the Old Dominion. But just the fact that there's ANY question about which way Virginia is going to go is a major red flag for the Bush campaign. They do not want to be wasting time and money running in Virginia when they could be spending those resources Florida or Michigan. Trouble is, if Bush wins, his margin is going to be so small that he really can't afford to give up Virginia under any realistic scenario.

Look at it this way - Kerry has about 201 electoral votes either locked up or very close to it. He's also working with solid leads in New Jersey, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico. Jersey's a 15, Ohio's a 20, Wisconsin a 10, Minnesota a 10, and New Mexico a 5. If Kerry wins all those states and New Hampshire (currently a toss-up), he'll be at 265 electoral votes, which means he could win ANY ONE of the remaining toss-up states, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Virginia or Michigan and win the election. If Kerry wins Florida, he can lose New Hampshire AND Ohio and still win the election.

In other words, Bush not only needs a virtual sweep of the so-called "battleground states," he probably needs to take away at least one big prize that Kerry already has his mitts on. Kerry, on the other hand, only needs to do what Kerry does best - sit around and not screw up.

Say hello to John F. Kerry, your next President.


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