Deep Underground with Raul Groom

Monday, April 12, 2004

More on the numbers in Iraq... There appear to be two completely different stories being told, and both can't be true. Both can be false, of course, but both can't be true.

Story #1 - Iraqi insurgents number between 1,000 and 6,000.

This is coming from Scott McClellan and Don Rumsfeld, echoing Pentagon estimates of the strength of the insurgency.

Story #2 - Massive Iraqi casualties in Fallujah represent insurgents, not unarmed civilians.

This is coming from the general whose men killed those 600 or so Iraqis.

If there are between 1,000 and 6,000 insurgents in THE WHOLE COUNTRY, and we killed 600 of them last week IN FALLUJAH ALONE, the fighting in Fallujah should be completely over. There's no one left there to fight. The President Himself could head over to Fallujah tomorrow, hang out, eat some lamb, shoot the shit with the locals. They love our asses there now.

Yeah.

So, probably there are a few more insurgents than 1,000 to 6,000. How many, we can't really know, but Paul Bremer did give us an estimate the other day at about a million (see my post from last week.) That seems more reasonable.

Of course, just because we accept that Story #1 is a crock of shit doesn't mean Story #2 is necessarily true. In fact, it's pretty much impossible that it's true. It's actually quite insulting to our intelligence that this general would try to tell us that in house-to-house fighting in a dense urban area, 600 people were shot dead and not one of them was an innocent bystander. At least tell a believable lie. Tell us it was only half insurgents. Hell, tell us one in ten was a civilian and we'll pretend that's realistic. But all 600? Is that really the story we're sticking with?

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